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Lula’s advantage over Bolsonaro rises to 11 points, points out Exame/Ideia



Exame/Ideia survey points out that ex-president Lula's advantage grew to 11 percentage points ahead of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).  (Photo montage: Yahoo Notícias/Douglas Magno - AFP via Getty Images/ REUTERS - Adriano Machado)

Exame/Ideia survey points out that ex-president Lula’s advantage grew to 11 percentage points ahead of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL). (Photo montage: Yahoo Notícias/Douglas Magno – AFP via Getty Images/ REUTERS – Adriano Machado)

Exame/Ideia survey released this Thursday shows a stable scenario in the presidential race, with the Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) 11 percentage points ahead of their main opponent, the President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

In relation to the last poll, in June, the PT oscillated one point down and the current president, 3 – both still within the margin of error.

The pedestrian Ciro Gomes, whose name was endorsed at a party convention this Wednesday, fluctuated from 7% to 8%. Simone Tebet (MDB) fluctuated from 3% to 4%.

Lula continues with a wide advantage among the female audience: 19 percentage points separate the PT from Bolsonaro. With men, the scenario is different: the former president appears with 40% of the preference of the male electorate against 38% of the current representative, configuring a technical tie.

The former president continues to lead among those with an income of up to three minimum wages. The difference for Bolsonaro reaches up to 29 percentage points. But the two best-placed candidates are technically tied in the public with an income of three to six minimum wages, and Bolsonaro has an advantage among the richest.

In the religious segment, Bolsonaro lost four percentage points among Catholics, gaining 24% of voting intentions from this electorate. Lula remained within the margin of error, oscillating one point down, but with an advantage of 30 percentage points in relation to the current president. The evangelical public continues to prefer Bolsonaro: 54% declare their vote for the PL pre-candidate, against 27% for the PT.

In a scenario of an eventual second round between Lula and Bolsonaro, the former president leads by 47% to 37%. He swung negative by one point, while the president pulls back three. With the advantage, Lula is back ten percentage points ahead of Bolsonaro in the second round in this poll – which has not happened since March.

“There is still no reflection of the impact resulting from the government’s measures of aid payment or fuel price reduction. That is, it is something that we need to monitor in public opinion in the coming months. It is worth remembering that the emergency aid took approximately two months to have a reflection on the president’s popularity”, analyzed the founder of Ideia, Maurício Moura, in the release of the research report.

Negative assessments of the government grow

The survey also shows a worsening in the assessment of the Bolsonaro government. In June, those who considered the current management as excellent/good amounted to 33%. Now, it has passed 29%. And those who rate the current government as bad/terrible went from 44% to 48% within a month.

There was still growth among those who consider the federal government to be primarily responsible for Brazil being on the wrong path. Last month, 29% blamed the current administration for the country’s situation. Now it’s 35%.

“On the question of whether he [o presidente Bolsonaro] deserves to be reelected, this number is above 50%, which means a great difficulty in reelection”, added Moura.

Unemployment remains the main problem in Brazil (25%), despite having decreased by four percentage points compared to June. Inflation follows, with 22%, and then corruption, which grew four points in relation to the previous survey, reaching 14%.

The Exame/Ideia electoral poll was carried out with 1,500 voters by telephone between the 15th and 20th of July. It is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-09608-2022.

from the newspaper O Globo

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