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Pessimism takes care of bolsonaristas with possible defeat



The scenario of a possible victory for former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the 1st round of this year’s presidential elections triggered a wave of pessimism among allies of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL). The vaunted hope at the beginning of the year gave way to the concern of taking the dispute to the 2nd round.

At Palácio do Planalto, a metaphor is used: Bolsonaro’s re-election candidacy is a boat adrift and it is necessary to find an island to anchor. The island, in this case, is precisely to reach the 2nd turn. Allies of the president consider that, in this case, the dispute returns to a reasonable level of equality and the scenario may change in favor of the current chief executive.

As showed O Power 360, of the last 6 electoral polls, 5 show the possibility of Lula winning on October 2nd. In 2 studies – Quaest and Datafolha – Lula wins outside the margin of error in the 1st round.

Other 3 – XP/Ipespe, FSB and PowerDate – indicate a technical tie between Lula’s voting intentions and the sum of the percentages of the other pre-candidates, within the margin of error. In Paraná Pesquisas, the distance is greater and there would be a 2nd shift.

The economic situation is not favorable to Bolsonaro at the moment. In the assessment of allies, the government lacked sensitivity, which was slow to take measures to mitigate the impact of inflation among the poorest voters. In according to research PowerDateheld from June 19 to 21, 2022, 47% of voters with a family income of up to 2 minimum wages vote for Lula.

This range of the electorate (family income of up to 2 minimum wages) is vital for anyone who wants to succeed in a presidential race. Today, 46% of voters are in this range of the poorest.

THE search PowerDate showed that Lula has 45% of voting intentions among voters who claim to have received some portion in the last month of Auxílio Brasil, a program created by Bolsonaro to replace Bolsa Família. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has the support of 28% of the beneficiaries.

There has been an increase in the number of Brazilians who today use firewood for cooking, as shown in the picture of a report by Poder360 on June 11, 2022.

The government now intends to increase the frequency with which it pays the so-called gas voucher. Currently, the aid is R$ 53 every 2 months. The government evaluates paying the benefit every month or doubling the value of the bimonthly installment. Around 5.68 million families are beneficiaries of the gas voucher. But there is a problem: the value of R$ 53 does not pay not even half the price of the gas cylinder.

It is also under study to offer assistance to around 900 thousand truck drivers to mitigate the impact of the increase in fuel prices. Other categories, such as taxi drivers and app drivers, may also end up being included in the proposal, which would put even more pressure on the accounts that the Economy makes to pay for the benefit.

In recent months, Bolsonaro allowed the renegotiation of debts from the Fies (Student Financing Fund) and released the extraordinary withdrawal of R$ 1,000 from the FGTS (Fundo de Garantia do Tempo de Serviço). All in the name of trying to improve the economic situation for the poorest. Nothing has had the desired effect so far.

There is an understanding around the Chief Executive that the results will take time to reach the people who need it most. The measures may not take effect in time to reverse votes before the 1st round takes place.

Another factor that worries the current president is the memory that voters have of the years of Lula’s government. PT’s campaign is exploring exactly the programs to combat hunger and extreme poverty developed by PT while he was in charge of Palácio do Planalto (2003-2010).

Experienced politicians reckon that if there are no clear indications by the end of June that the economy will improve, the presidential election scenario could point to his defeat.

Even in this negative scenario for the Planalto, congressmen from the base allied to the Planalto preferred to campaign on the São João festivities, the most popular celebration in the Northeast and celebrated on June 24th.

The PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) on Fuels, for example, was left to be analyzed only next week in the Senate. In the Chamber, the compass is waiting for the government’s projects, but, even so, the next negotiations should also only advance next week.


The arrest of former Minister of Education Milton Ribeiro, this Wednesday morning (June 22), is yet another factor that throws water at Bolsonaro’s candidacy. the episode weakens anti-corruption speech that leveraged the victorious Bolsonarista campaign of 2018.

When Ribeiro was removed after the revelation that operators without a position in the government and with religious ties to the then minister were negotiating the release of funds from the FNDE (National Education Development Fund) in exchange for bribes, Bolsonaro said it was a way out. “temporary”.

I also said that I would “face on fire” in defense of the pastor. Now, the chief executive’s speech has begun to adapt, albeit not entirely. Bolsonaro has already said that Ribeiro is who “accounts for actions”.

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