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Planalto maintains a commitment to polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula

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The growth of the name of the third way in recent days has not changed the electoral scenario foreseen by the Palácio do Planalto for the elections of 2022.

The government did research and based its projections on it. The bet is still on a second round between President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Lula.

The perception of government leaders is that, in a scenario where Leite and Moro are in conflict, the Gaucho might tend to have more votes than Moro. But in the second round, Moro’s votes would migrate to Bolsonaro.

There is, however, no perception that the two would go to the second round. The perception is that Moro has a ceiling in the range of 15% to 20% because his voter is identified as anti-Bolsonaro and anti-Lula and this would be, according to Planalto, the level of this electorate.

Planalto also says he doesn’t believe São Paulo Governor João Doria and Senate Speaker Rodrigo Pacheco will take off. Bolsonaro interlocutors say they would not go beyond 10%.

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