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War in Ukraine makes China rethink ‘when and how’ to invade Taiwan, according to CIA

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China draws conclusions from Russia’s war in Ukraine that lead it to lean towards the use of force against Taiwan, which makes invading the island a matter of time, CIA chief Bill Burns estimated on Wednesday. ).

“It seems to us that (the war in Ukraine) does not really affect the question of whether Chinese leaders can choose to use force against Taiwan in the next few years, but when and how they will do so,” the intelligence agency chief said. American during a security forum in Aspen, United States.

However, Burns played down the risk that Chinese President Xi Jinping would take action before the end of the year, despite some analysts believing he could do so after an important meeting of the ruling Communist party. “These risks are increasing, it seems to us, the further you go in this decade,” Burns analyzed.

Beijing is likely “uneasy” watching the war in Ukraine, analyzed the agency’s head, who called the armed conflict a “strategic failure” for Vladimir Putin, who believed he could overthrow the Ukrainian government within a week.

Burns believes China interprets this as proof “that quick and decisive victories are not achieved” without heavy use of military means.

“I think the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are learning is that you have to build overwhelming force” to win, Burns said, stressing the importance of “controlling the information space” and preparing for potential economic sanctions.

The CIA chief also considered, in line with previous statements by Washington, that China, despite its verbal support, does not provide military support to Russia in its war in Ukraine.

The United States is concerned about increased military pressure from Beijing in recent years against Taiwan, a democratic island that China considers part of its territory and hopes to one day recover.

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